National Discussion
Whereas the months of January and February (see below) brought periods of unseasonably mild weather to virtually all of the nation, March has begun and will continue to see very cold air dominate the eastern half of the country. Well below average temperatures are likely during the first half of the month in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Despite the very cold start, some moderation will occur just after mid-month with a spell of genuine spring possible right around the equinox.
The analog pattern for March and April (see list of years that match the February
anomalies) points to a milder than average month, but with a pronounced dry
period in the eastern states. As is typical in the first month of spring, several
cold set-backs are likely, perhaps with a notable late freeze at the end of
the month.
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Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast
Using 15-day medium range forecast temperature guidance and the likely monthly departures based on analog years, the following is a daily temperature forecast for western, central and eastern Pennsylvania. This forecast predicts the daily average temperature departure from the 30-year average temperature (dotted line) and the five day running mean of the temperature departure (solid line).
