National Discussion
The lead-in for the February/March experimental temperature forecast was based on anomalies in temperature and precipitation during January, 2005. While the precipitation pattern did not vary much, the temperature pattern flipped at mid-month. The enormous positive departures that had accumulated during the first two weeks of January in the eastern states was steadily eroded by the chilly air during the second half of the month. Meanwhile, the frigid air in the Plains and northern Rockies was supplanted by a very mild Pacific regime during the second half of the month. So while the wet signal from Texas to Pennsylvania and the dryness in the Southeast and coastal Northwest showed little change - the temperature pattern was literally shifting each day during the final week of January. Of course, this is the potential shortcoming of the method since the atmosphere is oblivious to the calendar. However, the years that showed a similar departure of precipitation and temperature (warm in the southern states and chilly in the northern tier) do indicate a surprising flip between February and March. There are indications that February will be mild in the eastern states followed by a colder regime in March. Even the precipitation will change from a moist February in Pennsylvania to a dry March. (see charts below)
Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast
Using 15-day medium range forecast temperature guidance and the likely monthly departures based on analog years, the following is a daily temperature forecast for western, central and eastern Pennsylvania. This forecast predicts the daily average temperature departure from the 30-year average temperature (dotted line) and the five day running mean of the temperature departure (solid line).
