January - February 2005 Experimental Forecast for Pennsylvania

At the beginning of each month, the Pennsylvania State Climate Office presents an experimental temperature forecast for the Commonwealth.  It will be routinely compared with actual observations for verification purposes.

To view the verification of the January/February 2005 forecast, visit the Verification Page.

National Discussion

The basis of the 60 day temperature outlook is the anomalies of temperature and precipitation during December, 2004 across the nation. The exceptional wetness in the Southwest and Ohio Valley combined with the colder than average conditions in parts of the West and the very mild weather in the Plains and Southeast generated the analog years of 1957, 1991, 1982, 2001, 1965 and 1987. These years were then used to create the analog temperature departures for Jan and February seen on the graphs below.

Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast

Using 15-day medium range forecast temperature guidance and the likely monthly departures based on analog years, the following is a daily temperature forecast for western, central and eastern Pennsylvania.  This forecast predicts the daily average temperature departure from the 30-year average temperature (dotted line) and the five day running mean of the temperature departure (solid line).