National Discussion
An approach to making a prediction for temperatures and precipitation for October and November 2004 is to analyze the anomalies of both temperature and precipitation over the past September.
Using the above temperature and precipitation anomalies, years that matched
both the warm/cool spots and the wet/dry areas were found by entering the regions
into our anomaly finding database. The years that coincided well were 1933,
1897, 2002, 1960, 1895, 1931 and 1921.
After putting together a composite map of these analog years, several predictions
can be made for both October and November.
Anticipated Temperature Anomaly for October 2004
- Warm anomaly in Southeastern U.S. especially through Texas
- Cold anomaly in the Northern Plains
- Cold anomaly in New England
- Warm anomaly in Washington and Idaho and some surrounding areas
Anticipated Precipitation Anomaly for October 2004
- Very dry anomaly on both the eastern and western seaboards
- Dry throughout the Northern Great Plains and in the Mississippi River Valley
Region
- Wet through Texas, New Mexico and parts of Louisiana, Florida, Oklahoma and
Kansas
Anticipated Temperature Anomaly for November 2004
- Extremely warm in Southern New Mexico and Texas and parts of Louisiana and
Arkansas
- Warm temperatures extend through eastern U.S. and up through the Northwest
corner
- New England has extremely cold temperature anomalies
- Less extreme cold anomalies occur in the Northern Plains region, Southern
California, Southern Florida and parts on the eastern seaboard (Maryland and
New Jersey)
Anticipated Precipitation Anomaly for November 2004
- Very dry in Southeastern U.S. and up through Pennsylvania
- Other dry spots include the eastern seaboard, the plains region and parts
of California, Oregon, Idaho and Utah.
- There is a wet region in the Ohio River Valley (including Ohio, Indiana and
Kentucky)
- Other wet spots include Montana, Southern Nevada and an area around New Hampshire
and Vermont
Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast
Using 15-day medium range forecast temperature guidance and the likely monthly departures based on analog years, the following is a daily temperature forecast for May and June 2004 for western, central and eastern Pennsylvania. This forecast predicts the daily average temperature departure from the 30-year average temperature (dotted line) and the five day running mean of the temperature departure (solid line).
