Weather Outlook for October and November of 2004

Thus far, the summer of 2004 has brought mild temperatures and heavy rain throughout most of Pennsylvania.  Meanwhile, predictions indicate the hottest summer temperature anomalies will arrive in August or early September.   Using this information and the analog forecasting method, the PA Climate Office generated weather outlooks for October and November of 2004 using analog years 1948, 1953, 1968, 1973, and 2002. 

In order to generate weather outlooks for both October and November, the Climate Office followed the procedure outlined below:

1)       Identify those years in which a heat spell occurred during August or early September in both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.  For this procedure, a heat spell represents at least a four day period where temperature departures are greater than 10.0 degrees F. 

2)       Use those years identified to create composite anomaly maps for temperature and precipitation in October and November of 2004.

3)       Use composite anomaly maps as basis for October and November weather outlook.

October 2004 Outlook

The October 2004 outlook suggests temperatures well below normal in the Pacific Northwest and along the west coast and temperatures above normal in the north-central US, states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, most of the Southeast, and along the east coast.  Precipitation patterns suggest below normal precipitation for the western US, Wisconsin, Michigan, and parts of Illinois and Indiana and slightly above normal precipitation in Texas and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota. 

Throughout most of Pennsylvania temperatures and precipitation expectations are about normal.   The outlook suggests temperatures slightly above normal for the eastern most climate divisions and precipitation slightly above normal in the Susquehanna Valley.

November 2004 Outlook

The November 2004 outlook suggests above normal temperatures throughout the Northeast and throughout the north-central US and temperatures slightly below normal in Texas, parts of New Mexico, Oklahoma and Colorado.  The precipitation outlook suggests above normal precipitation throughout the southeastern US and Pacific Northwest while below normal precipitation conditions exist in Wisconsin, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado.

In November, Pennsylvania exhibits above normal temperatures and the precipitation outlook ranges from normal to slightly above normal.