The Relationship Between a Snowy Winter and March Snowfall

This winter, snowfall totals through the end of February were well above average for Central and Southwestern PA. The purpose of this investigation is to see what relationship high snow amounts through the end of meteorological winter (February) have on snowfall totals for the following March. We examined snow data for Climate Division 7 (Central Pennsylvania) and Climate Division 9 (Southwestern Pennsylvania) for the years 1970 through 2003.

For Division 7, there were four years during that time period for which greater than 50 inches of snow fell by the end of February: 1978, 1994, 1996 and 2003. The March snowfalls for those years averaged 12.4 inches, however the March of 1994 skewed this value, with 25.1 inches of snow reported across this division. The 30 year average snowfall for March is 8.1 inches.

For Division 9, the same four years during that time period reported greater than 50 inches of snow fell by the end of February: 1978, 1994, 1996 and 2003. The average March snowfall for those years was 10.3 inches. The March 1994 bias was not as extreme in southwestern Pennsylvania, as only 18.4 inches was recorded in that month. The 30 year average snowfall for March in District 9 is 7.8 inches.

We found that March snowfall following winters that have been very snowy through the end of February tend to remain relatively close to the 30 year average. A brief overview of the data suggests as snowfalls have averaged more than 150 % of normal for those years in both climate divisions, however the bias of one storm in March of 1994 strongly biased this value. In general, there have been more snowier March's (above average) following winters with less than 50 inches of snowfall through February.

-SJG/BA