February - March 2004 Forecast for Pennsylvania

At the beginning of each month, the Pennsylvania State Climate Office presents an experimental temperature forecast for the Commonwealth. Each week it will be checked with actual data to test its accuracy.

For verification of the February/March 2004 forecast, visit the Verification Page.

The primary technique employed to produce the predictions below is a mixture of analog methods. First, we analyzed the January 2004 500 mb flow pattern by graphing the departures from normal over North America.

Next, we compared the 500mb anomalies in January 2004 with previous January flow patterns using the NCEP reanalysis data set. The upper level flow in 1981 was the most similar to the geopotential height pattern of January 2004.

A second analog approach was used to produce the following products to guide in predicting the temperature and precipitation anomalies for February and March 2004. This method compared years in which regional surface temperature and precipitation deviations from normal were similar to those experienced this past January throughout the United States. Using these years (1898, 1914, 1942, 1945, 1981, and 2003) the composite temperature and precipitation trends of the Februarys and Marchs that followed were calculated.

February 2004

The following two images show the analog forecast for February 2004. The first image predicts how the average temperature for the month may compare to the average temperature for the Februarys of 1895 – 2000. The second image predicts how the precipitation amounts for the coming month may compare to the long-term average amount.

The February temperature anomaly map predicts that it will be cool throughout the Ohio Valley and southeastern portions of the nation. Warmer than normal conditions are expected in the Northwest and across Arizona and New Mexico. Maine should also expect warmer than average temperatures.

The February precipitation anomaly map predicts a wetter than normal month across much of the Ohio Valley region and into the Northeast. The Carolina coast and parts of the Southwest should expect to remain dry. There is also a possibility of North Dakota experiencing a drier than normal month.

The following two images show the analog forecast for March 2004. The first image predicts how the average temperature for the month may compare to the average temperature for the Marchs of 1895 – 2000. The second image predicts how the precipitation amounts for the coming month may compare to the long-term average amount.

The March temperature anomaly map predicts that it will be mild across the Midwest and Atlantic seaboard, with warm conditions expected to take place across New England. The Southwest should experience cooler than normal temperatures.

The March precipitation anomaly map predicts a drier than normal month across the perimeter of the nation. Slightly above normal rainfall is possible across regions of the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Using 15-day medium range forecast temperature guidance and the likely monthly departures based on analog years, the following is a daily temperature forecast for February and March 2004 for western, central and eastern Pennsylvania. This forecast predicts the daily average temperature departure from the 30-year daily average temperature.