Climate Highlight for January 30, 2004
Comparison of Wet years to preceding years
When observing various weather extremes in our climatologically databases, its is often interesting to search for correlations of events that correspond with whatever particular phenomenon we are interested in. This summary attempts to find such a correlation between the ten wettest years over roughly the last 100 years worth of data for four different climatic divisions in Pennsylvania. This will be done by observing data on the year preceding each of the wettest years.
DIVISION 1
10 Wettest years
Greatest down to least
| YEAR |
| 2003 |
| 1996 |
| 1952 |
| 1945 |
| 1983 |
| 1972 |
| 1973 |
| 1979 |
| 1990 |
| 1975 |
The chart below houses the preceding year for each wettest year in order from greatest to least preceding wet year. There is little to no correlation in the first two columns, corresponding to precipitation departures. These departures oscillate rather regularly and actually seem to increase as the wetness of each year decreases, allowing for the inference that no correlation can here be seen. The next two columns have the yearly averaged departure from normal. Here as well there is little to no correlation. One might be able to gleam some information to the Spring departures, as they have a slightly large departure during three of the years. However the fact that these are randomly distributed throughout the ordered years, as well as that some years have above average departures, and some have below average departures, puts doubt on any information that could be gleamed.
DIVISION 2
10 Wettest years
Greatest down to least
| 2003 |
| 1952 |
| 1996 |
| 1975 |
| 1983 |
| 1972 |
| 1942 |
| 1951 |
| 1945 |
| 1977 |
Same as above, little to no definite correlation
DIVISION 3
10 Wettest years
Greatest down to least
| YEAR |
| 1996 |
| 2003 |
| 1975 |
| 1979 |
| 1983 |
| 1972 |
| 1952 |
| 1945 |
| 1903 |
| 1902 |
Same as above, little to no definite correlation
DIVISION 6
10 Wettest years
Greatest down to least
| YEAR |
| 2003 |
| 1996 |
| 1950 |
| 1972 |
| 1945 |
| 1977 |
| 1994 |
| 1975 |
| 1937 |
| 1993 |
Same as above, little to no definite correlation
Conclusion
When observing the 10 wettest years out of a 100 year range, it is difficult to find any sort of correlation. All data gives only inconclusive and seemingly arbitrary extremes in the data. It just goes to show that the Earth is a very complicated system, and finding cause and effect relations can be rather difficult, considering the fact that their may be no relations at all.
Brandon Katz