Water Watch Summary

August 3, 2004

February and March of 2004 brought below normal precipitation amounts throughout Pennsylvania and April brought close to normal precipitation amounts. However, the normality of April passed and the summer of 2004 deposited record-setting amounts of rain. North-central PA received the largest amount of precipitation this summer leaving Clinton County and Tioga County with rainfall totals exceeding 245% of normal. These departures from normal may continue increase in August; the analog forecast for August predicts above normal precipitation for most of PA.

Even with the immense amount of precipitation received this summer, most PA rivers and creeks are below flood stage according to the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. And, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection drought watch, all counties are under normal conditions. 

The potential of a near term drought is assessed using the Palmer Drought Index for PA, which indicates the entire state is under normal conditions. Therefore, long-term drought is not expected in the near future.  The Crop Moisture Index values for PA range from abnormally moist to excessively wet; short-term drought is not expected.

The above image from the Climate Prediction Center displays the expected drought forecast for the United States through October 2004.  Drought conditions are not forecast for Pennsylvania throughout this period, but drought conditions are forecast to persist in the Southwest and Rocky Mountains.  Drought conditions are forecast to improve in the Central and Northern Plains.  The Climate Prediction Center's website provides explanations for these forecasts.